In a forecasting contest of 5,507 teams, most could not beat the rule that tomorrow looks like today.
M7 · Predicting Tomorrow
A forecast is a guess about a number you have not seen yet, made from the numbers you have. This chapter builds forecasting from pictures you already know: Riyadh's year, a grid that follows the heat, a shop that fills up on Thursday and before Eid. You meet the simple forecasts that are hard to beat, learn to test a forecast the way time runs, give a range instead of one number, and decide when a forecast should not be made at all.
- Yesterday Is a Clue
- Three Things in One Line
- The Clocks Inside a Series
- Tomorrow Looks Like Today
- Keeping Score
- Average the Recent Past
- Let Old Days Fade
- The Series Predicts Itself
- Two Calendars, One Shop
- No Peeking
- Walk Forward
- A Range, Not a Number
- Big Models Against the Baseline
- Surprises
- When Not to Forecast