M7 · Predicting Tomorrow
Big Models Against the Baseline
Say what forecasting contests found about simple and learned models, and name the settings where a big model earns its place.
Since 1982, Spyros Makridakis and colleagues have run open forecasting contests, the M competitions. In 2000, the M3 contest pitted methods on 3,003 series. Complex methods were not reliably more accurate than simple ones.