Train the same model twice with different random seeds and you get two scores. Some published wins are smaller than that gap.
F4 · Reading Data Honestly
Statistics is how you tell a real improvement from a lucky one. Each lesson asks a plain question about a number: where is the middle, how far does it wobble, who is missing from the sample, and could luck alone have done this. You will draw confidence intervals, build one by resampling your own test set, run a coin test on two models, and see how twenty tries and early peeks manufacture wins. The chapter ends on a results table taken apart run by run.
- Nobody Is Average
- Shapes Real Data Takes
- Two Columns That Move Together
- Who Is Missing From the Sample
- Luck Has a Size
- The Interval Is the Result
- Pull the Test Set Up by Itself
- Could Luck Have Done It
- Right Nineteen Times in Twenty
- Keep Trying and You Will Win
- Decide the Size Before You Look
- Reading a Table With Suspicion